When was the last time you voted for candidates from opposing parties on the same ballot—if ever? For most people, it’s exceedingly rare. However, in this past election cycle, political polling revealed a surprising trend: a notable subset of people planning to choose Donald Trump for president while backing Democrats for Senate, House, or state offices. This trend was most apparent in races with a strong Democratic incumbent and/or a flawed Republican candidate, but it also emerged in lower-profile races with comparatively unremarkable candidates.
The phenomenon of ticket-splitting—when someone votes for candidates of opposing political parties—has declined as the US has become more polarized, but if polling was any indication, it was coming back with a vengeance in the 2024 elections.
Several significant issues could have contributed to this resurgence in ticket-splitting. The Dobbs decision in 2022 upended the role of abortion in American politics and led Democrats to a historically good performance in the 2022 midterms, while immigration and economic issues like inflation and housing costs wrecked President Biden’s approval rating. There’s also things like candidate likeability, voters’ party allegiance, and voters’ ideas of government to consider. Perceptions of these issues—and which ones were most important to voters—would decide the outcome of the 2024 elections.
To learn the true extent of this directional ticket-splitting and find where voters’ priorities would land, I contributed to a recent national opinion poll conducted by Verasight from October 21 to November 5, 2024 as part of a class at Cornell University. In this poll, approximately 3,000 respondents were asked if they planned to vote for Donald Trump for president and a Democrat for a Senate, House, or state office—and if so, why?
Unsurprisingly, the survey found that a large majority of people were not planning to vote for both Donald Trump and a Democrat for a Senate, House, or state-level election. Taking a look at people who were planning to do so yields some more interesting results, however. 35% of respondents cited policy preferences as their reason for doing so, 34% said they either strongly like or dislike a specific candidate, 25% said they were not committed to either party, and just six percent said that they prefer divided government.
This data suggests that people weighed policy preferences and their feelings about the candidates pretty much equally in the 2024 election. It’s hard to deny that there might be a connection between those two responses, however. Many voters were angry with the Biden administration for what they perceived to be a bad economy, which drove down Biden and Harris’s approval and favorability ratings. On the other hand, some voters may have stuck with Democrats down-ballot because of other factors like abortion or candidate quality.
Among those who planned to vote for Donald Trump and a Democrat for a Senate, House, or state-level election because they strongly liked or disliked a specific candidate, 65% said that they strongly liked a candidate, while 35% strongly disliked a candidate. This suggests that a large majority of people with that reasoning strongly liked either Donald Trump or a Democrat in a different race. This is a departure from the recent norm that people vote against candidates they dislike instead of for candidates they like. Additionally, the loser of the election (Harris) actually had higher favorability ratings than the winner (Trump) did overall.
What might have happened is that this poll captured the sentiment of independents and late-deciders, who held more favorable views of Trump than Harris and generally ended up breaking towards Trump. This highlights the role that favorability played among the specific groups who decided the election.
These findings have important implications for candidates in future elections. Firstly, candidates should not be afraid to distance themselves from unpopular things, even if the optics might not be great. For example, Kamala Harris might have benefited from putting some daylight between herself and President Biden. Candidates should also focus on setting their own path. Voters value independence and authenticity, even if it doesn’t completely line up with their positions or priorities. For example, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear retains a high approval rating in conservative Kentucky despite liberal positions, in part because voters feel that he acts authentically based on his convictions. On the other hand, many voters viewed Harris as an extension of the Biden administration instead of a unique candidate in her own right, which harmed her chances at winning.
While surveys are never perfectly precise and my question was intentionally broad, these takeaways are based on survey data and election results that provided a reasonable basis for analysis. Exit polls and specific results corroborate many of these insights. As we move past the 2024 election and look ahead to 2026 and 2028, candidates would be remiss not to take these lessons to heart.
Tyler Fouch 